Why your plans are not working

It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near one.
J.R.R. Tolkien

So you are hold up in a project that actually was supposed to be finished by now? 
We, as humans, have the tendency to restrict and limit our thinking processes in order to built a mental reality we can cope and work with. But these fallacies and bias often limit our ability to perform as well. In consequence it can be very valuable for individuals to learn more about the biases and fallacies that limit performance in order to find workarounds and the opportunity to flourish.

The planning fallacy of project management

One of the most common biases and fallacies when it comes to project management is the planning fallacy.
The planning fallacy, first proposed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, is the phenomenon of the underestimation of the time which is needed to finish a task, regardless of experience and prior knowledge. The optimism regarding the task evolves further in an optimistic thinking towards the costs, risks and benefits of tasks and projects.

The reasons why project management processes are too optimistic

Instead of using your full experience, you find yourself in the wishful thinking process towards
over-optimism.
One explanation why the overconfidence in planning processes might occur is the fact that humans like to engage in impression management, so they might not recall their past experiences rightly but also that they frame their way to success in such vivid images that it hinders them to truly see the reality of data and facts.

How to cope with project management optimism

When you plan projects so optimistic, that you are by now late on either one or some projects you are working on- you might want to actively engage in ways to cope with the planning fallacy in order to make better, achievable plans.

Segmentation effect

The segmentation effect describes the effect that the time allocated to smaller sub tasks in addition is higher than the time allocated to the main task.

You can use the segmentation effect for your own project management in the following way:

Divide the project into smaller subtasks.
Allocate time to achieve and finish the subtasks.
Add the time of all subtasks to get the maximum time to finish the main subject.

Implementation intentions

An accurate plan how, when and where someone acts showed to reduce the planning fallacy in studies.

In order to use these findings for your own project management, you should incorporate not only the time when a task is due (see above) but also who will be responsible for achievement and performance as well as the tools you or a team member might need to finish the task.

At least- plan with buffers

If the coping mechanisms of the segmentation effect and implementation intentions are far too much planning for you, you should at least consider planning some buffer time with tasks and projects.

By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.
Benjamin Franklin

Ressources and further reading material:

• Kahneman, D. (2012), Thinking fast and slow. New York, MacMillan